Document Type : Research Paper

Author

• Davoud Sabahi Bidgoli

Faculty of Management and Soft Technologies, Malek Ashtar University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Climate change, as one of the most profound challenges of the twenty-first century, has increasingly undermined the environmental, economic, and social foundations of global food systems. Rising temperatures, the intensification of extreme climatic events, growing water scarcity, and instability in agricultural production have placed the food security of millions at risk, while simultaneously exposing the limitations of conventional planning and policy-making approaches. In this context, foresight emerges as a systematic approach for addressing deep uncertainty, enabling the exploration of plausible futures and the design of transition pathways toward resilient and sustainable food systems. The objective of this study is to develop a comprehensive foresight framework to enhance the resilience of food systems to climate change through to the 2050 horizon. By integrating global trend analysis, identification of key driving forces, exploratory scenario development, and policy assessment, the research examines alternative future trajectories of food systems. The proposed framework coherently combines three core dimensions foresight, climate resilience, and adaptive governance allowing for the assessment of interactions among climate, energy, technology, and policy domains. The findings indicate that a continuation of current trajectories is likely to exacerbate food insecurity, increase dependence on imports, and erode environmental sustainability, whereas a deliberate transition grounded in adaptive policies, technological innovation, and integrated resource management can substantially strengthen the resilience capacity of food systems.

Keywords

• Foresight
• Food Systems
• Climate Change
• Resilience
• Scenario Development

Main Subjects

• صنایع غذایی